The “Green” Election Market Proxy

With just a week to go, election predictors puzzling over the too-close-to-call polls, have a choice of numerous proxy market predictors, among them the 7-11 Cup Poll, Intrade, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.

And now: the Chia president. As reported in the San Francisco Business Times:

Chia Obama was trouncing Chia Romney 69.6 percent to 29.5 through September …. In the days following the [first] debate, Romney made up ground, narrowing the gap to 63 percent to 36.3.

However, as with the uncertainty surrounding the spread in the 7-11 Cup Poll:

Of course, given the uncontrolled nature of the polling done by 7-11 via coffee sales, several factors could be contributing to Obama’s coffee poll dominance.

It could be that Dems drink more coffee overall, or more wealthy Republicans can afford pricier Starbucks coffees. Or, it could be that many Romney supporters are quieter about their affiliation and opt for a non-partisan cup when selecting their daily brew.

So the problem with the Chia proxy could be that those choosing to buy Chia Obama over Chia Romney are doing so out of a desire to have fun at the expense of the candidate not of their choosing.

Mary L. G. Theroux is Senior Vice President of the Independent Institute. Having received her A.B. in economics from Stanford University, she is Managing Director of Lightning Ventures, L.P., a San Francisco Bay Area investment firm, former Chairman of the Board of Advisors for the Salvation Army of both San Francisco and Alameda County, and Vice President of the C.S. Lewis Society of California.
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